Coresight Research has released a new weekly reporting series on consumer holiday shopping. Running through the end of the year, the firm is keeping tabs on wether respondents have made holiday purchases in the past week, if so from where (among a list of the top 25 most-shopped retailers), and in which categories.
The initial report from a survey on October 7 revealed more than 30% of consumers said they had shopped for holiday items in the past week. Top retailers included Amazon, Walmart, and Target, and fashion took the second shopped category after decorations.
Consumer Survey Reveals Shoppers Expect Early Sales
Coresight Research’s Head of Global Research, John Mercer, says he only expects that number to rise as the season stretches on. And, consumers are showing an early need for discounted items. “We expect to see a sustained consumer appetite for promotions in the fourth quarter,” he confirms. “Amazon has now created an effective second Prime Day each October, and we expect such events to resonate with consumers, with October timing encouraging the pull-forward of demand and likely impacting traditional days such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday. This year, those traditional events will fall later on the calendar, providing further opportunity for October events to pre-empt them.” Mercer adds that retailers should consider bumping sales events earlier in the year to capitalize on this trend.
Online Versus In-Store Holiday Shopping
In a positive result for brick and mortar, the survey revealed 37% of respondents made an in-store holiday purchase in the previous week, compared to 26% online. However, Mercer says overall, e-commerce will continue to rise. “Online sales growth is more muted than it was in the heady days of the pandemic but e-commerce is a channel growing share of the total apparel and footwear market in 2024,” he says. “Coresight Research estimates 31.3% of total apparel and footwear sales will be online this year, up from 30.0% last year.”
Optimism is on the Rise
Despite recent challenges, the survey reports consumer sentiment about economic prospects has been improving steadily. Mercer credits the optimism to news on economic growth, inflation, and interest rates. “At Coresight, we expected 2024 to be a transition year from a weaker, inflation-impacted economy to greater resilience amid low inflation and reduced interest rates,” he says. “That transition is proving slower than initially expected but since midyear, we have seen overall inflation finally dip below 3% and the first cut to interest rates.”
Mercer delivers the good news with caution, however, noting that consumers with lower budgets are still feeling the pressure. And though spending is increasing, consumer income is not keeping up, leaving many shoppers to resort to borrowing funds or draw from their savings. To counter the negatives, Mercer points to a strong labor market and lowering interest rates. “In a still-constrained context, consumers are spending selectively,” he explains. “In the holiday peak, we expect price-competitive offerings to continue to appeal across the income spectrum but to see the greatest incremental appeal among lower-income shoppers.” Overall, despite pockets of weakness, Coresight forecasts U.S. retails to expand around 3% and online retail sales to grow around 9% in the fourth quarter.
