Last week, the FDRA and FFANY released its 2024 Holiday Shoe Sales Forecast. The results of this nationwide survey of consumer purchasing habits this holiday season included quite a few surprises.
“One major surprise is that Amazon has lost its dominance in holiday shoe sales,” reports FDRA Senior Vice President Andy Polk. “In our 2018 survey, 57% of consumers indicated they planned to buy shoes on Amazon. By 2022, that number had dropped to 43%, still respectable, but this year it has fallen further to just 34%.”
Another noteworthy shift, according to Polk, is that nearly half of consumers buying fashion or dress shoes plan to spend more than in previous years. And along with high fashion, work boots have also shown strong performance. “This indicates potential growth across various industry segments this holiday season, moving beyond the casual comfort trend that has dominated recent years,” he says.
After years of moving up the shopping calendar, Polk expects a return to Black Friday shopping, which he says is closely tied to supply chain factors. In recent years, consumers were concerned about delays due to clogged shipping channels that prompted them to shop earlier. “Now, with ample inventory, consumers appear to be waiting for the best deals, which they expect to find on Black Friday,” Polk adds. “This shift can be advantageous for retailers, who can plan staffing and ramp up targeted marketing for that peak shopping period.”
Overall, the survey reflects a bullish consumer outlook on the economy. There is reduced uncertainty now that election results are clear, and Americans got the change in economic direction they were wanting. “This could lead to increased consumer confidence, even though the economy is already strong, and that confidence may translate to higher spending,” Polk explains. “Data shows nearly 40% of all shoe consumers plan to spend more this year than last. Those who are less content with the election outcome likely already viewed the economy as stable, so a reduction in their spending is not anticipated.”
Overall, Polk is optimistic about a strong selling season. “I foresee a highly positive holiday season for both brands and retailers—better than anticipated by many.”
FDRA 2024 Holiday Shoe Sales Forecast: Key Takeaways
- Black Friday is making a comeback. 53% of consumers plan to buy their holiday shoes Black Friday to Cyber Monday
- Amazon’s dominance is facing, as more consumers shop directly on brand’s websites.
- Shoppers are looking for comfort, but work boots/shoes look to have a great season.
- 36% of shoppers plan to spend more than last year, a boost of 8% over 2023.
- 84% said they would be open to purchasing footwear categories they don’t usually buy if price or promotions are favorable.
