As defined by AI, Chaos Theory explains that within the visible randomness of complex, chaotic systems, you can see inherent repetition, patterns, self-organization, interconnectedness, self-similarity, and constant feedback loops. Maybe so, but that’s definitely not the case within our industry in the past few months. There doesn’t seem to be any intelligent design that might inspire confidence that the chaos of a trade war is anything but devastating for wholesalers, retailers, and consumers—and that it will get worse the longer it drags on.
The epic disruption is already leading to less innovation and quality, and fewer shoes overall—yet prices are going up. Paying more for less is never a good business strategy. Meanwhile, many companies are buckling under the cash crunch. There are only so many added costs that can be absorbed and/or passed on, including the cost increases, both legit and opportunistic, of raw materials and shipping. And unlike the Covid pandemic, no government bailout is coming to help companies survive this fallout. Industry jobs are being lost. Thousands more are in jeopardy. For a lot of companies, this is the sledgehammer that will shatter the camel’s back.
Ironically, this trade war is designed (so says the man who started it) to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States in droves. From a footwear perspective, there’s as much chance of that happening at a meaningful scale as President Trump giving up golf, red ties, money, and social media. It ain’t happening. It would take years and billions of dollars to create the infrastructure, never mind finding enough Americans willing to do those hard jobs. We already have approximately 18 million men aged 16 to 64 not actively seeking employment despite plenty of suitable jobs being available. Good luck filling those phantom factories with eager employees.
Meanwhile, our industry sits in the crosshairs, with about 58 percent of the 2.5 billion shoes consumed annually in the U.S. currently made in China. That’s better than the 90 percent made there in 2010, but it’s still a huge number that can’t be absorbed elsewhere easily or quickly. Besides, no country is a safe haven for shoemaking right now. The lack of consistency and the volatility of tariffs is perplexing at best, paralyzing at worst. What if the rates imposed on Vietnam and Mexico, for example, go back to 40 percent next month? No wonder public companies are withholding future guidance. How can one possibly plan a business effectively amid such chaos?
During the early fallout of the pandemic, Footwear Plus ran a feature titled “The Virus Diaries.” In it, various industry leaders detailed how they were dealing with the shock of Covid 19 and creating a playbook on the fly. Their insights reflected bravery, ingenuity, determination, hope, and faith. They shared a solution-oriented array of ideas and strategies. Our industry was doing everything in its power to adapt and survive. It was inspiring as much as it was informative.
I hoped we’d never again have to run such a feature, because if we did, it would mean something really traumatic had happened. Alas, here we are with “The Turmoil Diaries” (p. 14). Like before, a cross section of industry leaders reveal how they are pivoting amid this trade war and adapting to a host of other forms of turmoil ushered in by this new administration. Regardless of whether you agree with the actions and logic of President Trump, the massive fallout is real. Sweeping and indiscriminate chainsaw cuts have consequences. So does upending long-term friendships and strategic alliances. This overall disruption will extend far beyond our supply chain, and the effects will linger. Hence, the need to react and adapt. On a more positive note, the insights and strategies you’ll find in this feature are again inspiring and informative. They come from an array of doers, not do-nothing whiners. Props to the private sector!
Such coverage is essentially our mission: serving as a go-between for wholesalers and retailers to facilitate business. In fact, every page in every issue of Footwear Plus, be it editorial or advertisement, is solutions-oriented and offers money-making potential. It can be a Q&A with a leading wholesaler, like this month’s conversation with Alegria CEO Luke Chen (p. 10) discussing how the brand is expanding into a one-stop women’s comfort resource. It can be A Note to My Younger Self. This month contributor Sam Cohen, owner of Avenue J Shoes, offers survivor tips gained over 50 years in business—mostly at the fitting stool (p. 23). Or it can be the plethora of fashion coverage in every issue. The next trend, brand, or style that could set the fashion world on fire might be on those pages. The same goes for our advertisers, promoting their latest and greatest collections. Those advertisers include trade shows that bring our industry together to facilitate business much in the same way we do. It’s all good.
I love the synergy across all our pages. Each one provides an opportunity to help you navigate disruption, build business, and succeed over the long term. Our aim in Footwear Plus is for every page to provide a potential sellout for our readers!
